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New Research Results May Help You Predict the Future of Your Relationship

Summary of:

Author: MacDonald, Tara K; Ross, Michael

Publication: Personality & Social Psychology Bulletin | v25n11 | 1417-1429 | Nov 1999 |

Assessing the accuracy of predictions about dating relationships: How and why do lovers' predictions differ from those made by observers?

Truth, reason, and love keep little company together. -Shakespeare, A Midsummer Night's Dream

Think you have a good idea of how your relationship is going? You think you are certain that it will last a while? Well, new research indicates that you are probably overly optimistic about your relationship's future and not a very good judge of your romantic compatibility.

The Studies

In two longitudinal studies, university students, their roommates, and parents assessed the quality and forecast the longevity of the students' dating relationships. Students assessed their relationships more positively, focusing primarily on the strengths of their relationships, and made more optimistic predictions than did parents and roommates.

Although students were more confident in their predictions, their explicit forecasts tended to be less accurate than those of the two observer groups. Students, however, possessed information that could have yielded more accurate forecasts.

Why are Lovers so Often Wrong?

It's easy to see from the outside that the giddiness felt early in a relationship may be clouding the judgements of those involved. Early in a relationship: ·

The optimism of dating couples probably reflects their perceptions and behavior

People may fail to anticipate future problems in their relationship · Lovers tend to not see potential faults in their partner

Partners may not reveal their shortcomings early in the relationship

Partners also underestimate the impact of these faults

Conclusion: When in Doubt, Ask

The study results make it clear that it is a great idea to ask for the opinion of those close to you before making any big decisions regarding the relationship. If you find yourself a little tipsy in Vegas, and the cute little wedding chapel is starting to sound like a really cool idea; call your best bud and tell him what you are up to. If his response is, "Are you out of your freaking mind? She's a psycho!," then you might want odering some coffe and locking yourself in the bathroom until the urge passes.

The Hard Numbers

Here is a taste of some of the fun you are missing by not reading the whole study report.

"Participants estimated the likelihood that the couples would remain together for various time periods. As shown in Table 2, students were the most optimistic; parents were generally the least optimistic but did not differ from roommates on some measures. On the open-ended estimate of how long the relationship would last, students (M= 145.4 months) were more optimistic than were roommates (M = 55.04 months) or parents (M= 89.93 months). The open-ended predictions were positively skewed so a square-root transformation was performed before analyzing the data. This analysis revealed a significant difference among the three groups, F(2,136) = 6.13, p=.003. Students predicted that the relationship would last longer than did roommates, t(73) = 3.34, p =.001, and parents, t(68) = 2.54, p = .013, who did not differ from each other, t(72) = 0.45, ns. "

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